Daily Market Update, Oct 29, 2026: Fed Holds Rates Steady, More Florida Insurers Cut Rates, Amendment 3 Vote Next Week
Good morning! I'm Royal Hoang Duong. Here's my quick look at yesterday's mortgage, Florida real estate, and insurance news, and what it means for you.
1. Mortgage: the Fed holds, but a December hike is in play
- The Fed held rates steady. On Oct. 28 the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented; both wanted a quarter-point increase. The Fed said inflation "remains elevated" and it wants more information before its next move (Federal Reserve). CNBC reports futures markets see a strong possibility of a hike at the December meeting (CNBC).
- Long-term yields rose. Mortgage rates follow long-term bonds more than the Fed rate. After the announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 5.042%, while the 2-year yield fell to 4.7% (Reuters via StreetInsider).
- Today's rates. Zillow's marketplace showed the 30-year fixed purchase rate at 7.15%, the 15-year fixed at 6.51%, and the 30-year VA at 6.60%, all lower than a week ago (Yahoo Finance). Mortgage News Daily's index was 7.35% for the 30-year fixed on Oct. 28, with 30-year FHA at 6.99% and 30-year VA at 7.00% (Mortgage News Daily). Freddie Mac's weekly survey comes out at noon ET today; last week it was 7.32% (Freddie Mac).
- Applications bounced back. MBA said mortgage applications rose 3.4% for the week ending Oct. 23, as its 30-year fixed rate fell to 7.37%, the lowest in three weeks. Purchase applications rose 4% but are still 18% below last year. ARM loans rose to 11.3% of applications, the highest in more than a year, and the average 5/1 ARM rate was 6.41% (MBA).
- Executive order on mortgage costs. An executive order published Oct. 28 tells the FHFA director, if he finds it appropriate, to have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac test proactively canceling mortgage insurance on newer loans once borrowers have enough equity, and to expand a program that can replace lender's title insurance with an automated title review on eligible refinances. The order also tells USDA and VA to lower rates on the home loans those agencies make directly (Federal Register). None of this is in effect yet; the agencies still have to act.
My takeaway: A Fed "hold" doesn't mean mortgage rates drop. If December brings a hike, rates could stay high, so don't wait on a big drop that may not come. If the payment on a 30-year fixed is too tight, ask me to compare an ARM side by side with a fixed rate. As a broker, I can shop your loan with multiple lenders, including FHA and VA options.
2. Florida real estate: Amendment 3 property tax vote on Nov. 3
- What's on the ballot. Florida voters decide Amendment 3 on Nov. 3, and it needs 60% to pass. If approved, the homestead exemption for non-school taxes would rise to $150,000 starting in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 (today's total exemption is up to $51,411). For non-homestead property, such as second homes, rentals, vacant land, and commercial buildings, the yearly cap on assessed value increases would drop from 10% to 5% (Pinellas County Property Appraiser; Miami Herald).
- New residents are treated differently. People who become Florida residents on or after Jan. 1, 2027, would start with a $50,000 exemption and get the larger one only after four years of homestead. School taxes and existing Save Our Homes and portability rules would not change (Pinellas County Property Appraiser).
- The trade-off. State estimates say local governments could lose a combined $8.7 billion in revenue in 2028 if it passes. Local governments could cut services, raise fees, or raise tax rates to make up the difference, the Miami Herald reports (Miami Herald).
My takeaway: I'm not telling you how to vote. If you plan to move to Florida or buy here, the Dec. 31, 2026 residency date could matter under this measure. Your tax bill still depends on local tax rates, so estimate taxes carefully before you buy, especially for a second home or rental.
3. Insurance in the states I serve
- Florida: three more rate cuts. USAA cut Florida auto rates an average of 7% on more than 498,000 policies. Mangrove Property Insurance announced an average 5.6% statewide decrease for its HO-3 homeowners program (filed use-and-file, so regulators have not yet reviewed it). Security First cut HO-6 condo rates an average of 7.3% for more than 20,000 policyholders. Florida OIR says the top five auto groups show a 2026 indicated rate change of -12.6% (Insurance Journal).
- Florida: fake-coverage arrest. Florida's Department of Financial Services charged an unlicensed man and a Hialeah agency owner over fake workers' compensation certificates sold to a contractor; about $10,500 in premiums was allegedly kept (Insurance Journal).
- Texas: see why policies get dropped near you. TDI's free online tool shows home and auto insurance cancellations, nonrenewals, and denials by ZIP code, with the reasons insurers gave (KPRC Click2Houston). Also, Slide Insurance has entered Texas with an HO-3 homeowners product (Reinsurance News).
- California. Commissioner Ricardo Lara finalized a long-term solvency rule requiring California-based insurers to plan for climate, AI, cyber, and other risks. The department says it does not change current policies or rates (California Department of Insurance).
- South Carolina. Mediation between state regulators and Atlantic Coast Life over the insurer's financial condition ended at an impasse; the parties proposed a trial no earlier than Jan. 19, 2027 (InsuranceNewsNet).
- No major new consumer insurance news in the past day for Ohio, Mississippi, Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, or Oklahoma.
My takeaway: Florida rates are coming down for many people, but your current carrier won't always offer you the best price. If your renewal is coming up, let me shop it. And always check that an agent is licensed before you pay. In Florida, you can look them up with the Department of Financial Services.
Let's talk
Questions about a home loan, buying or selling in Florida, or your insurance? Call or text me at 813-735-7125, get an insurance quote, or start your mortgage pre-qualification.
Royal Hoang Duong, Loan Officer NMLS #1852235 with H & L Lending Company LLC (NMLS #1660192), a mortgage broker. Licensed Real Estate Professional, LPT Realty (SL3386362). Insurance Agency, Royal Financial Services & Insurance. Rates quoted are third-party national averages and are not an offer or commitment to lend. Not all applicants will qualify.
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For general education only, not financial, legal or insurance advice. Rates and programs subject to change. Home loans are arranged through H & L Lending Company LLC (NMLS #1660192), a mortgage broker, not a lender.